The Trend of Carbon Fiber
Dubbed the "king of new materials," carbon fiber is accelerating its penetration from traditional application fields into strategic sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, thanks to its core advantages of being lightweight, high-strength, corrosion-resistant, and highly designable. It has become a key force driving the upgrading of high-end manufacturing and the optimization of industrial structures. Currently, the global carbon fiber industry is undergoing the painful transition from "scale expansion" to "high-end breakthrough." China enterprises, leveraging their production capacity advantages and technological breakthroughs, are reshaping the global competitive landscape, and their future direction is closely watched by the industry.
Application scenarios: From traditional penetration to emerging breakthroughs, multi-point activation unlocks demand potential
The application boundaries of carbon fiber continue to expand, forming a dual-driven pattern of steady growth in traditional sectors and explosive growth in emerging fields. In traditional sectors, sports and leisure remain the primary application scenario, accounting for 30.3% of the market. The penetration rate of carbon fiber in equipment such as golf clubs and high-end tennis rackets has exceeded 90% and 78%, respectively. The mass production of domestically produced T700-grade carbon fiber has enabled Chinese enterprises to gradually capture international market shares. In the industrial sector, the demand growth in the wind power industry is particularly significant. With the large-scale application of offshore wind turbines over 120 meters, carbon fiber has become the preferred material for turbine main beams due to its ability to reduce blade weight by 38% and improve power generation efficiency by approximately 10%. By 2025, the proportion of carbon fiber demand in China's wind power sector has reached 26.2%, with Jilin Chemical Fiber holding 95% of the domestic market share in wind power carbon fiber due to its technological advantages.
Emerging fields are becoming new engines for the growth of carbon fiber demand. In the low-altitude economy sector, the carbon fiber consumption per eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft reaches 100-400 kilograms. With the domestic low-altitude economy market size expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026, the compound annual growth rate of carbon fiber demand in this sector will reach 69%. The hydrogen energy and new energy vehicle sectors also hold tremendous potential. Carbon fiber composites are the core material for 70MPa three-type hydrogen storage cylinders, and Zhongfu Shenying's SYT 49S-24K carbon fiber has broken the monopoly of Japanese companies. In the new energy vehicle sector, its application in battery casings and body frames can achieve a 20%-30% weight reduction, improving the range by approximately 15%. It is projected that by 2030, new energy vehicles will become the largest single application field for carbon fiber, accounting for 45%. Additionally, demand in fields such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics is rapidly rising. China's StarNet plan to deploy 300 satellites by 2026 will generate over 180,000 tons of carbon fiber demand, while the lightweight requirements for robotic arms and fuselage frames in humanoid robots will drive global consumption to exceed the 10,000-ton level.
Technology Evolution: Accelerating Breakthrough in Domestic High-end Products, Moving from "Following" to "Running Side by Side"
The core competitiveness in the carbon fiber industry hinges on technological barriers, with the current global landscape exhibiting a "high-end monopoly, mid-range breakthrough, and low-end oversupply" pattern. Internationally, Japanese company Toray and American firm Heraeus have long dominated the T1000+ high-end market, possessing mature expertise in precursor purity control and precision process optimization. Through sustained R&D investments, domestic enterprises have achieved gradual breakthroughs from mid-to-low-end to high-end segments. Shanxi's recent mass production of T1000-grade high-performance carbon fiber marks a pivotal milestone in China's large-scale manufacturing of high-performance carbon fiber. With T800-grade stable production now largely achieved domestically, the industry is accelerating the development of higher-strength products at T1100 and T1200 levels.
The technological advancement focuses on three core dimensions: First, process optimization. Advanced techniques like dry-jet wet spinning continuously enhance product consistency and stability, with large tow technology becoming a key cost-reduction factor. The large-scale production of Jilin Carbon Valley's 75K precursor and Zhongfu Shenying's 48K large tow precursor has reduced domestic carbon fiber costs to 70% of international levels. Second, green manufacturing. Breakthroughs in bio-based raw material development (e.g., lignin-based carbon fiber) and recycling technologies are advancing simultaneously. Suzhou Lvx Technology has established China's first thousand-ton recycling production line, achieving over 90% carbon fiber recovery rate and maintaining 85% strength retention in regenerated fibers. Third, functional integration. The fusion of carbon fiber with sensors and AI technology has given rise to smart materials. Honda's ASIMO robots, embedded with carbon nanotube/PDMS conductive composites, achieve high-precision contact sensing, expanding the application boundaries of carbon fiber in intelligent equipment.
Market landscape: China's production capacity leads the world, and high-end transformation resolves structural contradictions
The global carbon fiber market is currently in a rapid growth phase, with the global market size expected to reach $5.8 billion by 2025 and double to $11.5 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.9%. The wind power and aerospace sectors have become the main growth drivers. The China market has performed particularly well, with a market size of 17.14 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. It is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2025. Domestic carbon fiber supply now accounts for 80.1% of total domestic demand, achieving near-complete import substitution in areas such as wind turbine blades and solar thermal applications. The production capacity accounts for 58% of the global total, forming three major core industrial clusters in East China, Northeast China, and Northwest China.
Meanwhile, the industry grapples with structural imbalances: production capacity for mid-to-low-end T300-grade products outpaces demand growth, resulting in low utilization rates and heightened overcapacity risks, while the high-end segment continues to face supply shortages. Against this backdrop, "high-end transformation" has become an industry consensus, with leading domestic players establishing differentiated competitive strategies—Jilin Chemical Fiber focuses on civilian markets like wind power, Zhongfu Shenying specializes in aerospace high-end applications, and Guangwei Composite Materials concentrates on military and new energy sectors. On the policy front, the government has rolled out a series of supportive measures, including designating carbon fiber as a key strategic material in the "New Materials Industry Development Plan (2024-2030)". Policies such as green finance and R&D subsidies provide safeguards for high-end transformation, driving the industry's shift from "scale-driven" to "value-driven" growth.
Conclusion: Grasp the trend dividend, build a new industrial ecology
The development trend of the carbon fiber industry is not only an inevitable result of material technology iteration but also a microcosm of the global high-end manufacturing industry upgrade. From the continuous expansion of application scenarios to the constant breakthroughs in technology and the reshaping and optimization of market patterns, carbon fiber is embracing unprecedented development opportunities. For BOYUE New Technology, delving into the upstream and downstream of the carbon fiber industry chain and focusing on material innovation and application implementation in emerging fields are not only key to capturing industrial dividends but also a manifestation of fulfilling the mission of technological innovation. In the future, with the large-scale production and cross-industry integration of domestically produced high-end carbon fiber, China is expected to transition from a "carbon fiber giant" to a "carbon fiber powerhouse," while carbon fiber will continue to inject strong momentum into the development of global new technologies and industries.
